LINEAR PROFILE MONITORING ADAPTED TO CONSTRUCT EARLY WARNING SYSYTEM IN ECONOMICS: A PILOT STUDY FROM ENERGY SECTOR

In this study, control charts for monitoring linear profiles are adopted to early warning system (EWS) to see if global crises can be detected before they occur so that preventive actions can be taken by the policy makers. For this purpose, the relation between the annual gross domestic product (GDP) and energy consumption of G8 and big emerging countries through the years 1980-2012 is observed. Phase I analysis indicated that the model parameters are autocorrelated through time. Thus, the Shewhart and EWMA charts for linear profile monitoring are adopted to take this into account and found that EWMA is better. It is seen that the 2[1]008 global crisis can be detected whereas relatively local Asian crisis cannot. This is the first study that integrates linear profile monitoring schemes to EWS and that takes into account the correlation among profiles with different explanatory variables (x-values) for each profile