Analysis of the European Union Divorce Rates

This article estimates crude divorce rates using Markov chain model. Markov models are constructed for the divorce rates of 27 European Union countries. Divorce rates are estimated by the product of the initial probability matrix and transition probability matrix. Limiting matrices of the estimations are found. Main results of this study are i) divorce rates in higher categories in 2015 stay in the same categories in the long run, ii) Only Belgium’s crude divorce rate will certainly be realized and be stationary over 2015 mean of EU 27, iii) Based on Markov models with three and four categories, 2018 divorce rates will more likely be realized and be stationary in lower categories, iv) Turkey’s crude divorce rate will certainly be under 2015 mean of EU 27 in the long run, and v) Based on Markov model with five categories, the divorce rate of the countries with higher likelihood of divorce in the upper categories will be stationary in the upper categories and the divorce rate of the countries with lower likelihood of starting in the lower categories will be stationary in the lower categories