What Triggers the ISTFIX Bubbles?

Business cycles are constantly observed, whether small or large, due to delays in response of supply to demand in the maritime market. In some cases, the incomes are so low that it does not give the shipowners a chance to live, and in some cases they go from rags to riches. Despite these risks, the maritime market is vital especially for developing countries such as Turkey. The aim of this study is to determine the factors that influence the probability of price bubble formation in the ？stanbul Freight Index (ISTFIX). In this direction, firstly the price bubbles were determined by generalized sup augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) test. Following the GSADF test, a logit regression model was established by creating dummy variables from bubble dates and it was tried to determine the factors affecting bubble formation. The dataset consists of 354 weekly observations and covers the dates between 18.03.2011 and 31.12.2017. According to the results, 4 bubble periods with lengths ranging from 6 to 12 weeks were detected. In the logit model, it was found that “euro” and “fuel price” variables increase the probability of bubble formation and the marginal effect of “euro” is much higher