Forecasting of red meat and milk prices of Turkey with using the Box-Jenkins models

Time series analysis is a frequently used statistical analysis method which is used for estimating future in econometrics. In this study it was aimed that, producer prices for milk and red meat belonging to the 2010-2018 years’ in Turkey analysed with time series analysis and producer prices for same products were estimated for 2019-2021 years. The study material consisted of official red meat and milk producer prices for 2010-2018 years from the World Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), National Red Meat Council (UKON) and National Dairy Council (USK). By these data, red meat prices were estimated using the ARIMA (1.1.0) model and milk prices using the ARIMA (2.1.2) model for the years 2019-2021. As a result of the study, it was estimated that the producer prices of red meat and milk will increase in a linear up to 2021 year, the average red meat prices (carcass) will be 31,4 TL/kg and the milk prices will be 1,96 TL/lt at the end of 2021 year. In conclusion, time series analysis can be used to estimate livestock product prices for the future but should be updated continuously and may be a guide for future planning of both producers and consumers