The Effect of Crude Oil on Developing Countries’ Stock Markets: Variance Casuality Analysis

Due to the free movement of capital and advancing technology, the interaction between markets increase day by day. While analysing markets; the interaction direct to companies, individual and institutional investors and policymakers to considering different markets as well as domestic news. One of the most important among these markets is the oil market. The oil market has significant impacts on macroeconomic indicators (inflation, interest rates and unemployment, etc.) and production costs, sales revenues and cash flows of firms. According to this, the aim of the study is to reveal the relationship between emerging stock markets and oil market. For this purpose, WTI crude oil price and MSCI Emerging Market Index were analysed by Moon and Yu (2010) approach in the period span from 2012 to 2018. As a result of the analysis; there is a return spill over from crude oil markets to emerging stock markets. In case of opposite direction, volatility spill over was determined. The findings will contribute to the decision-making process of investors, policymaker and researchers for the analysed period