THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN NOMINAL INTEREST RATE AND INFLATION RATE: AN ANALYSIS ON THE VALIDITY OF THE GIBSON PARADOX

Gibson, in contrast to the Classical economic view, revealed the existence of a positive relationship from the wholesale prices index to the bond interest in the British economy in 1923. This relationship, which was later referred to as the "Gibson Paradox", constituted the subject of many theoretical and empirical work. This study also explores the validity of the Gibson Paradox for Fragile Economies in the period 2000-2016. Investigating the validity of the Gibson Paradox, nominal deposit interest rate and inflation rate was used and the relationship between the two variables was examined using Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) Method. Seemingly Unrelated Regression Method has certain advantages in estimating units to use within a system, to consider cross sectional dependency, and to produce individually results for each unit. When the results obtained are examined, a positive and meaningful relationship has been reached between nominal deposit interest rate and inflation rate in all Fragile Economies. As a result, Gibson Paradox is valid in all Fragile Economies in the period 2000-2016