Supply risk analysis: applying system dynamics to the Colombian healthcare sector

This paper addresses supply risk in the oncological medicine supply chain (SC) in Colombia. A system dynamics model was developed for assessing supply risk impact on SC operation and performance. The costs of risk and logis-tics operation were evaluated in current conditions and in a risk mitigation scenario. The model was based on a systematic analysis of supply networks, mainly concerning the reduction of overall SC costs and improving service, quality and opportunity performance index. This article has resulted from research into SC risk management (SCRM) carried out by the Universidad Nacional de Colombia’s SEPRO research group