Anthropogenic climate and non-climate drivers of change are causing significant impacts on estuarine and coastal marine environments. Climate change poses a particular threat to the structure and function of biotic communities in these environments because it acts on the most extensive temporal and spatial scales relative to other anthropogenic drivers of change. The interaction of multiple environmental drivers exacerbates degradation of ecosystem condition. Estuaries are most susceptible to climate-change mediated biotic shifts and direct anthropogenic impacts due to burgeoning human population growth and development in coastal watersheds. Multiple anthropogenic drivers of change, which often interact synergistically, alter physical, chemical, and biological characteristics. Ecological responses may be increasingly nonlinear, with cumulative effects manifested by marked changes in organism abundance, distribution, diversity, and productivity. Detrimental biotic effects in impacted coastal environments cascade up from individual organisms to population and community levels, culminating in ecosystem-level changes including reduced services. Multiple drivers of change and their impacts are increasing in estuarine and coastal marine environments with greater anthropogenic forcing in the coastal zone and global effects of climate change, creating greater challenges for environmental management and conservation programs.
References
[1]
Kennish, M.J. (2002) Environmental Threats and Environmental Future of Estuaries. Environmental Conservation, 29, 78-107. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0376892902000061
[2]
Kennish, M.J. (2016) Encyclopedia of Estuaries. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8801-4
[3]
Doney, S.C., Ruckelshaus, M., Duffy, J.E., Barry, J.P., Chang, F., English, C.A., et al. (2012) Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems. Annual Review of Marine Science, 4, 11-37. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-041911-111611
[4]
Hoegh-Guldberg, O. and Bruno, J.F. (2010) The Impact of Climate Change on the World’s Marine Ecosystems. Science, 328, 1523-1528. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1189930
[5]
Poloczanska, E.S., Brown, C.J., Sydeman, W.J., Kiessling, W., Schoeman, D.S., Moore, P.J., et al. (2013) Global Imprint of Climate Change on Marine Life. Nature Climate Change, 3, 919-925. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1958
[6]
Poloczanska, E.S., Burrows, M.T., Brown, C.J., Molinos, J.G., Halpern, B.S., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., et al. (2016) Responses of Marine Organisms to Climate Change across Oceans, Frontiers in Marine Science, 3, 62. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2016.00062
[7]
Boyd, P.W., Collins, S., Dupont, S., Fabricius, K., Gattuso, J-P., Havenhand, J., et al. (2018) Experimental Strategies to Assess the Biological Ramifications of Multiple Drivers of Global Ocean Change. Global Change Biology, 24, 2239-2261. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14102
[8]
Robins, P.E., Skov, M.W., Lewis, M.J., Giménez, L., Davies, A.G., Malham, S.K., et al. (2016) Impact of Climate Change on UK Estuaries: A Review of Past Trends and Potential Projections. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 169, 119-135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2015.12.016
[9]
Collins, M., Sutherland, M., Bouwer, L., Cheong, S-M., Frölicher, T., Jacot Des Combes, H., et al. (2019) Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risks. In: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D.C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E.S., et al., Eds., IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, Chapter 6, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, 589-655.
[10]
Pinsky, M.L., Eikeset, A.M., McCauley, D.J., Payne, J.L. and Sunday, J.M. (2019) Greater Vulnerability to Warming of Marine Versus Terrestrial Ectotherms. Nature, 569, 108-111. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1132-4
[11]
Halpern, B.S., Walbridge, S., Selkoe, K.A., Kappel, C.V., Micheli, F. and D’Agrosa, C. (2008) A Global Map of Human Impact on Marine Ecosystems. Science, 319, 948-952. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1149345
[12]
Halpern, B.S., Frazier, M., Potapenko, J., Casey, K.S., Koenig, K., Longo, C., et al. (2015) Spatial and Temporal Changes in Cumulative Human Impacts on the World’s Ocean. Nature Communications, 6, Article No. 7615. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8615
Boyd, P.W. and Hutchins, D.A. (2012) Understanding the Responses of Ocean Biota to a Complex Matrix of Cumulative Anthropogenic Change. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 470, 125-135. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps10121
[15]
Paerl, H.W., Crosswell, J.R., Van Dam, B., Hall, N.S., Rossignol, K.L., Osburn, C.L., et al. (2018) Two Decades of Tropical Cyclone Impacts on North Carolina’s Estuarine Carbon, Nutrient, and Phytoplankton Dynamics: Implications for Biogeochemical Cycling and Water Quality in a Stormier World. Biogeochemistry, 141, 307-332. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10533-018-0438-x
[16]
Viaroli, P., Bartoli, M., Giordani, G., Naldi, M., Orfavidis, S. and Zaldivar, J.M. (2008) Community Shifts, Alternate Stable States, Biogeochemical Controls and Feedbacks in Eutrophic Coastal Lagoons: A Brief Overview. Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems, 18, S105-S117. https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.956
[17]
Duarte, C.M., Conley, D.J., Carstensen, J. and Sánchez-Camacho, M. (2009) Return to Neverland: Shifting Baselines Affect Eutrophication Restoration Targets. Estuaries and Coasts, 32, 29-36. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-008-9111-2
[18]
Paerl, H.W., Valdes, L.M.L., Peierls, B.L., Adolf, I.A. and Harding Jr., L.W. (2006) Anthropogenic and Climatic Influences on the Eutrophication of Large Estuarine Ecosystems. Limnology and Oceanography, 51, 448-462. https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2006.51.1_part_2.0448
[19]
Kennish, M.J., Bricker, S.B., Dennison, W.C., Glibert, P.M., Livingston, R.J., Moore, K.A., et al. (2007) Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor Estuary: Case Study of a Highly Eutrophic Coastal Bay System. Ecological Applications, 17, S3-S16. https://doi.org/10.1890/05-0800.1
[20]
Kennish, M.J. (2009) Eutrophication of Mid-Atlantic Coastal Bays. Bulletin of the New Jersey Academy of Science, 54, 5-12.
[21]
Kennish, M.J. and de Jonge, V.N. (2011) Chemical Introductions to the Systems: Diffuse and Nonpoint Source Pollution from Chemicals (Nutrients: Eutrophication). In: Kennish, M.J. and Elliott, M., Eds., Treatise on Estuarine and Coastal Science, Vol. 8, Elsevier, Oxford, 113-148. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-374711-2.00806-8
[22]
Howarth, R.W., Chan, F., Conley, D.J., Garnier, J., Doney, S.C., Marino, R. and Billen, G. (2011) Coupling Biogeochemical Cycles: Eutrophication and Hypoxia in Temperate Estuaries and Coastal Marine Ecosystems. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 9, 18-26. https://doi.org/10.1890/100008
[23]
Kennish, M.J. and Paerl, H.W. (2010) Coastal Lagoons: Critical Habitats of Environmental Change. CRC Press, Boca Raton. https://doi.org/10.1201/EBK1420088304
[24]
Bernhardt, J.R. and Leslie, H.M. (2013) Resilience to Climate Change in Coastal Marine Ecosystems. Annual Review of Marine Science, 5, 371-392. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-121211-172411
[25]
Côté, I.M., Darling, E.S. and Brown, C.J. (2016) Interactions among Ecosystem Stressors and Their Importance in Conservation. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 283, Article ID: 20152592. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2015.2592
[26]
Folt, C.L., Chen, C.Y., Moore, M.V. and Burnaford, J. (1999) Synergism and Antagonism among Multiple Stressors. Limnology and Oceanography, 44, 864-877. https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.1999.44.3_part_2.0864
[27]
Griffen, B.D., Belgrad, B.A., Cannizzo, Z.J., Knotts, E.R. and Hancock, E.R. (2016) Rethinking Our Approach to Multiple Stressor Studies in Marine Environments. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 543, 273-281. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps11595
[28]
Gunderson, A.R., Armstrong, E.J. and Stillman, J.H. (2016) Multiple Stressors in a Changing World: The Need for an Improved Perspective on Physiological Responses to the Dynamic Marine Environment. Annual Review of Marine Science, 8, 357-378. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-122414-033953
[29]
Kroeker, K.J., Kordas, R.L. and Harley, C.D.G. (2017) Embracing Interactions in Ocean Acidification Research: Confronting Multiple Stressor Scenarios and Context Dependence. Biology Letters, 13, Article ID: 20160802. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0802
[30]
Crain, C.M., Kroeker, K. and Halpern, B.S. (2008) Interactive and Cumulative Effects of Multiple Human Stressors in Marine Systems. Ecology Letters, 11, 1304-1315. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01253.x
[31]
Piggott, J.J., Townsend, C.R. and Matthaei, C.D. (2015) Reconceptualizing Synergism and Antagonism among Multiple Stressors. Ecology and Evolution, 5, 1538-1547. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.1465
[32]
Gattuso, J-P., Magnan, A.K., Bopp, L., Cheung, W.W.L., Duarte, D.W., Hinkel, J., et al. (2018) Ocean Solutions to Address Climate Change and Its Effects on Marine Ecosystems. Frontiers in Marine Science, 5, 337. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2018.00337
[33]
Harley, C.D.G., Hughes, A.R., Hultgren, K.M., Miner, B.G., Sorte, C.J.B., Thornber, C.S., et al. (2006) The Impacts of Climate Change in Coastal Marine Systems. Ecology Letters, 9, 228-241. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00871.x
[34]
Halpern, B.S., Frazier, M., Afflerbach, J., O’Hara, C., Katona, S., Lowndes, J.S., et al. (2017) Drivers and Implications of Change in Global Ocean Health Over the Past Five Years. PLoS ONE, 12, e0178267. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0178267
[35]
Halpern, B.S., Frazier, M., Afflerbach, J., Lowndes, J.S., Micheli, F., O’Hara, C., et al. (2019) Recent Pace of Change in Human Impact on the World’s Oceans. Science Reports, 9, Article No. 11609. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-47201-9
Goussen, B., Price, O.R., Rendal, C. and Ashauer, R. (2016) Integrated Presentation of Ecological Risk from Multiple Stressors. Scientific Reports, 6, Article No. 36004. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep36004
[38]
Henson, S.A., Beaulieu, C., Ilyina, R., Jasmin, J.F., Long, M., Séférian, R., et al. (2017) Rapid Emergence of Climate Change in Environmental Drivers of Marine Ecosystems. Nature Communications, 8, Article No. 14682. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14682
[39]
Rose, J.M., Feng, Y., Di Tullio, G.R., Dunbar, R.B., Hare, C.E., et al. (2009) Synergistic Effects of Iron and Temperature on Antarctic Phytoplankton and Microzooplankton Assemblages. Biogeosciences, 6, 3131-3147. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-3131-2009
[40]
Feng Y., Hare, C.E., Leblanc, K., Rose, J.M., Zhang, Y., Di Tullio, G.R., et al. (2009) Effects of Increased pCO2 and Temperature on the North Atlantic Spring Bloom. I. The Phytoplankton Community and Biogeochemical Response. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 388, 13-25. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps08133
[41]
Yang, Y., Hansson, L. and Gattuso, J.-P. (2016) Data Compilation on the Biological Response to Ocean Acidification: An Update. Earth System Science Data, 8, 79-87. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-79-2016
[42]
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014) Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York.
[43]
Folke, C., Carpenter, S., Walker, B., Scheffer, M., Elmqvist, T., Gunderson, L. and Holling, C.S. (2004) Regime Shifts, Resilience, and Biodiversity in Ecosystem Management. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 35, 557-581. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.35.021103.105711
[44]
Leslie, H.M. (2005) A Synthesis of Marine Conservation Planning Approaches. Conservation Biology, 19, 1701-1713. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2005.00268.x
[45]
McLeod, K.L. and Leslie, H.M. (2009) Ecosystem-Based Management for the Oceans. Island Press, Washington DC.
