海南红树林资源现状与预警研究
The Studies on Current Status and Pre-Warning Mechanism of Mangroves in Hainan

通过实地考察、抽样样地调查等数据收集整理,运用马尔可夫模型进行预测分析,对海南红树林资源进行了较为全面的研究.研究表明:近50年来海南红树林面积锐减,自2006年出台相关计划后红树林面积减少的趋势才稍有好转.对海南红树林资源进行了预测,发现从2014年起未来10年内海南红树林遭严重破坏或毁灭性破坏的概率较小,能够较稳定发展的概率占总体概率的50%以上; 且从2014―2015年红树林保护管理的情况来看,预估2016―2024年海南省红树林以恢复保护与轻度破坏为主.因此,有必要进一步引导当地居民科学的生产生活方式,有条件限制性地对沿海滩涂进行合理利用,优化和完善海南省红树林湿地保护方案和管理机制.
The data is collected through field trips and sampling plot survey,and Markov model is used to predictive parsing.The study shows that the area of mangroves in Hainan has declined sharply in the last 50 years,and the trend of mangrove area reduction has improved slightly since the related plan was introduced in 2006.The mangrove resources are predicted in Hainan,and it is found that the probability of serious destruction or destructive destruction of mangroves in Hainan in the next 10 years will be relatively small since 2014,the probability of stable development accounts for more than half of the total probability.From the perspective of mangrove conservation management in 2014 and 2015,it is predicted that mangrove forest in Hainan province will mainly be restored to protect and slight damage in 2016 to 2024.Therefore,it is necessary to guide the scientific production and life style of the local residents,and make reasonable use of the coastal tidal flats,and optimize and perfect the protection plan and management mechanism of the mangrove wetland in Hainan province