鄱阳湖信江流域典型县域水资源承载力研究
The Study on Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Typical Counties of Xinjiang River Basin,Poyang Lake

在分析鄱阳湖水资源利用及社会经济结构特点的基础上，构建了基于层次分析法的水资源承载力评价指标体系，以信江流域典型县域为研究对象，计算了不同经济社会发展时期研究区域水资源承载力状况。结果表明：典型县域水资源系统与其他系统协调性增强，水资源需求量不断增长但未出现超载状况；不同产业结构背景下的区域，水资源承载力存在差异，其中，贵溪市由于经济结构不同，比万年县和东乡县的水资源承载能力更强，可承载的人口规模与经济规模增长空间更大。基于层次分析法的水资源承载力评价指标体系可以较好地反映经济结构调整下区域水资源与经济社会之间的协调关系。
On the basis of the analysis of water resources utilization and economic structure characteristics in Poyang Lake basin,evaluation indexes about carrying capacity based on analytic hierarchy process method were constructed to assess water resources of typical counties in Xinjiang River Basin. The results showed that the water resources system had closed relationship with other systems. Although the demand of water resources in typical counties were sustainable increasing,the total amount was still down the limition. The study also showed that there were significant differences of water resources carrying capaciy in different industrial structure. Comparing with two other counties, water resources carrying capacity in Guixi showed more stronger than others and could carry a more larger popula-tion and economy scales for growth. Evaluation indexes system can better reflect the relationship between the region-al water resources demanding and economic society structure