鄱阳湖水位变化趋势性对人类活动响应分析
The Analysis on the Response of the Water Level Change Trend to Human Activities in Poyang Lake

进入21世纪以来,长江干流上游水库群的运行对鄱阳湖与长江之间物质和能量的交换过程产生了重要影响,鄱阳湖流域的秋旱现象逐渐严重,江湖关系加速演变.采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、R/S(Rescaled Range Analysis)分析法、变差系数Cv和偏态系数Cs等方法,分析了2000年以来鄱阳湖水位变化趋势性特征; 分析了长江干流上游水库群调节和湖区采砂活动对鄱阳湖水位趋势性变化的影响.结果显示:2000―2014年鄱阳湖水位分阶段降低,2006―2014年水位降至最低,比2000年前低1.08 m.2000年后,鄱阳湖全年、汛期和枯季平均水位都有减少趋势,10月份平均水位有非常显著的减少趋势; 不同季节主湖区与入江水道水位变化趋势性不一致; H值表明鄱阳湖冬季水位减少有较强的持续性.长江干流上游水库群调节对鄱阳湖水位影响存在时空差异,水库群蓄水期加剧了鄱阳湖水位下降的幅度,对湖心区影响达4%以上.采砂活动对鄱阳湖水位的影响在2006―2014年表现明显,除了10月份外其余季节的影响都大于长江干流上游水库群调节作用.合理调度长江干流上游水库群及湖区采砂活动在保护鄱阳湖生态环境中具有重要意义.
Since the 21st century,regulations of reservoir group of the Yangtze River upstream have some important impact on the process that the matter and energy exchange between Yangtze River and Poyang Lake.Autumn droughts in Poyang Lake drainage become more and more serious,and the relationship between the Yangtze River and Poyang Lake has evolved faster.Mann-Kendall trend test,R/S(Rescaled Range Analysis)analysis method,the variation coefficient Cv and skewness coefficient Cs etc.,are used to analyze the trend characteristics of water level change in Poyang Lake since 2000.The effects of reservoir group regulation in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River main stream and sand excavating in Poyang Lake on the water level change trend of Poyang Lake are quantitative analyzed.The results show that water level of Poyang Lake have decreased by step during 2000―2014,which fell to its lowest level in 2006―2014.It is 1.08 m lower than that before 2000.After 2000,the average water level in the whole year,flood season and dry season of Poyang Lake has a decreasing trend,and the average water level in October has a very significant decreasing.The variation trend of water level in main lake is inconsistent with water channel into Yangtze River in Poyang Lake in different seasons.The H value indicates that the decreasing of water level of Poyang Lake is more sustainable in winter.The impact of reservoir group regulation of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River main stream on the water level of Poyang Lake is different in spatial and temporal disparities.In impounding period, the reservoir group regulation aggravates the decline extent of the water level of Poyang Lake,whose impact on the central area of the lake is more than 4%.It is more obvious that the sand excavating activities influence on the water level of Poyang Lake from 2006 to 2014.Except October,its influence is greater than that of the reservoir group regulation in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River main stream in other seasons.It is of great significance to control rationally reservoir groups in the