The "Predictability of Events" in the Jurisprudence of the European Court of Human Rights: Did the Authorities Know or Ought They to Have Known About Actual or Imminent Risk?

Sa？etak The police have a leading role in protecting the lives of people, not only through their reactive role, but also through proactive action that has gained a new (real and legal) dimension through the recent practice of the European Court of Human Rights. This paper analyses the country’s positive obligation to adopt effective normative and enforcement measures to protect life. The European Court of Human Rights case law has crystallised the criterion of the “predictability of events” in determining the emergence of a state’s positive obligation, on the basis of which it can be established that the authorities knew or ought to have known about the existence of real and immediate risks to the life of the identified person so as to take measures within its powers which could reasonably prevent this risk. The European Court of Human Rights has repeatedly applied this criterion for the evaluation of events, but the author considers that it has been further affirmed since the adoption of Directive 2012/29 / EC. It is precisely the positive obligation that is central to this work, which is tackled problematically through Bljakaj v. Croatia and Toma？i？ v. Croatia, and warns of the increasing importance of risk assessment for victims. It is possible that there will be more and more cases before the European Court of Human Rights that will contain a violation of the very positive obligations, unlike negative and procedural ones, which are implemented in practice. Finally, mention is made of the original suggestions which need to improve how the police act