A Novel Financial Market Dynamics Analytic Framework against the Black Swans Effect

Sa？etak Inevitably the turbulence of social events, the Black Swans, will impact the economic growth and stability significantly. The polarized media and the populism amplify this impact during the survival period of the social event. To observe the impact of the event, using the leading indices such as the volatility of the financial market is a common approach of reflecting the sensitivity of the event. In the democratic society, the presidential election is the most significant social event that gives the uncertainty of the existing political courses in many perspectives. Arguably, especially when this election occurs in a divided society, the public opinions of the major media collide with the “silent” populism, will magnify the financial turbulence drastically. Mr. Donald Trump has been considered as a black swan since he became the president candidate of the Republicans Party (GOP). Many pessimistic people speculated he would jeopardize the economy if he won the election. This paper examined the poll statistics and the stock indices; not only be this paper able to disclose how the controversial election impacted the financial market, but also to show the deviation between the polls conducted by the major media and the result of the election by rigorous analytical processes. Lastly, the proposed analytic framework can be applied to any critical social events that has financial impact or no