Methodological Challenges of Constitutional Judgement: Effects of Apportionment on Electoral Results in Croatia, 2000-2016

Sa？etak Taking the position of the Constitutional Court of Republic of Croatia that constitutionality of apportionment in Croatian parliamentary elections depends on whether such an apportionment affects electoral results as a starting point, the author discusses the methodological strategies by which the effects could be scientifically verified and measured. Discarding methodological suggestion of the Constitutional Court itself as a demanding and "non-economic" in terms of research, the article offers an alternative methodological strategy, also based on simulation as the only appropriate method for resolving such a research puzzle. Simulation of electoral results of parliamentary elections in Croatia from 2000 to 2016, under conditions of electoral units of different magnitude that assure real equality of voting rights, shows significant differences to actual electoral results at the level of electoral districts and personal level. Effects on distribution of seats among parties at the level of entire parliament as well as on the chances of parties to form government are either minimal or non-existent. There are no juristic obstacles for the research finding to be used in the praxis of the Constitutional Court