新疆库尔勒香梨种植区1961~2017年气候变化特征及未来气候影响分析
Climate Change Characteristics of Korla Pear Planting Area in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2017 and Analysis on Future Climate Impact

DOI: 10.12677/CCRL.2021.101003, PP. 18-26

Keywords: 库尔勒香梨主要种植区，区域气候变化特征，未来气候影响
Main Planting Areas of Korla Pear in Xinjiang, Climate Change Characteristics, Future Climate Impact

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Abstract:

利用1961~2017年新疆库尔勒香梨主要种植区气象资料，分析57a来区域气候变化特征以及未来80a (2018~2097年)气候变化对库尔勒香梨的可能影响。结果表明：1) 57a来，库尔勒香梨主要种植区年平均气温、年降水量、主要生长季(4~10月)平均降水量以及日平均气温稳定通过0℃、10℃、20℃的平均积温均呈显著或较显著增加趋势；冬季日最低气温≤？20℃、？22℃、？24℃的平均日数均呈不显著的减少趋势；无霜期呈较显著延长趋势。2) 未来80a，库尔勒香梨种植区年平均气温增高、无霜期延长有利于库尔勒香梨生长期的延长；主要生长季(4~10月)平均降水量呈较显著增加趋势，有利于果园土壤水分的增加；库尔勒香梨安全越冬的隐患仍然较大。了解新疆库尔勒香梨主要种植区气候变化特征及未来气候对其的可能影响，对充分利用气候资源、合理调整新疆特色林果种植结构、提高抵御气象灾害风险能力具有一定重要意义。
Based on the meteorological data from 1961 to 2017 in main planting areas of Korla pear in Xin-jiang, the characteristics of regional climate change in the past 57 years and the possible influence of climate change in the future 80 years (2018~2097) on Korla pear were analyzed. The results show that: 1) From 1961 to 2017, the annual average temperature, the annual precipitation, the average precipitation in the main growing season (April to October) and the average accumulated temperature of 0？C, 10？C and 20？C in the main planting areas of Korla pear showed a significant or relatively significant increase trend; the mean days of daily minimum temperature ≤？20？C, ？22？C and ？24？C in winter were not significantly decreased; the frost-free period was significantly prolonged. 2) From 2018 to 2097, the increase of annual average temperature and the extension of frost-free period in Korla will be beneficial to the extension of Korla Pear growth period. The average precipitation in the main growing season (April to October) showed a significant increase trend, which was beneficial to the increase of soil moisture in orchard; the hidden danger of safe winter of Korla pear will be still bigger. To understand the characteristics of climate change and the possible influence of future climate on Korla pear in Xinjiang, it will be of some significance to make full use of climate resources, reasonably adjust the planting structure of characteristic fruits in Xinjiang, and improve the ability of resisting meteorological disaster risk.

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