Time-varying character for short-term capital flow from the interest rate aspect in China

Sa？etak This study investigates the causal link between short-term capital flow and interest rate differential with the bootstrap Granger full- sample causality and sub-sample rolling-window methods. The empirical results indicate that there is a unidirectional link from interest rate differential to short-term capital flow. However, when considering structural breaks in the above series, the full-sample causality test cannot be relied on. Hence, the time-varying rolling- window method is employed to examine the dynamic causal nexus. Being influenced by the U.S. monetary, world economic situation, Chinese intervention policies and other factors, interest rate differential has influences on short-term capital flow in some periods, but the reverse effect does not exist. Therefore, it is important for authorities to focus on specific backgrounds (e.g., economic situation, monetary policies) and further utilise interest rate and capital control to alleviate negative effects from violent fluctuation of short-term capital flow on the Chinese economy