Investigating the likelihood of catastrophic events in natural gas pipelines using an integration of fault tree analysis and What-if methods

Sa？etak Today, natural gas is considered the biggest source of supplying the energy required by many residential and industrial areas. A look at the technologies available in Iran makes it evident that pipelines are the best and safest way for the country to carry and distribute natural gas. This energy resource, which is sometimes referred to as clean fuel, plays a strategic role in providing required energy. On the other hand, this fuel must be supplied in a continuous and yet safe manner. Hence, we arrive to the conclusion that appropriate measures are needed to be taken to manage the risks involved in leakage, firing and explosion in these facilities. To meet the goal, it is very necessary to probe into the reasons of catastrophes and examine reliability issues. Also, it is inevitable for us to estimate the likelihood of catastrophes in these pipelines. One of the essential steps of risk evaluation process is to estimate the likelihood of potential catastrophes. This paper adopts FTA methodology to study the process of catastrophes likelihood estimation in natural gas pipelines. Also, a novel method is provided here which is based on assigning weights to fault tree and “What-if” scenario is used to identify the hazards involved in carrying natural gas from its main source. Based on the results obtained in the study, we propose to control the likelihood of catastrophes occurrence in natural gas pipelines using a technical and systematic approach in which the underlying causes of these catastrophes are identified and controlled