中国蓝筹股估值中的股息永续增长率
On the Perpetual Growth Rate of Dividends for Chinese Blue-Chip Stocks

蓝筹股的长期投资回报对于投资者的投资决策具有重要意义。由于股息永续增长率是测算预期股权回报的重要参数，本文以2004~2019年沪深300指数成分股的数据为样本，以历史股息增长率为基准，分析对比各个股息永续增长率参数——无风险收益率，平滑前、后的内在无风险收益率(CPI和GDP的年度增长率相加)，及回报潜在增长率(CPI和GDP年均复合增长率相加)。研究发现，在经济高速发展的中国，可以使用内在无风险收益率或回报潜在增长率作为蓝筹股的股息永续增长率。
The investment return of blue-chip stocks is of great significance to investors’ decision-making. Due to the importance of the perpetual dividend growth rate when we estimate the expected return of stocks, using the data of the CSI 300 Index, this paper discusses, with the benchmarking of the his-torical dividend growth rate, the referencing of the risk-free rate, of the intrinsic risk-free rate, of the smoothed intrinsic risk-free rate, and of the potential return growth rate (put the compound annual growth rate of CPI and GDP together), as the parameter of the perpetual growth rate of divi-dends. This author argues that, the intrinsic risk-free rates and the potential return growth rate could be better parameters of the perpetual growth rate of dividends in China.