基于贝叶斯模型的电力企业本质安全动态信用评价体系研究
Research on Dynamic Credit Evaluation System for Intrinsic Safety of Electric Power Enterprises Based on Bayesian Model

安全信用与其他信用一样，是员工保障无事故和隐患，能正常完成工作的履约和承诺的水平，安全信用代表了员工作业的安全可靠性与可信性，是员工能否上岗和顺利完成工作的衡量标准之一。研究基于贝叶斯定理和原则，以国家电网一线员工安全作业数据为基础，构建了电力企业一线作业员工的本质安全信用动态评价指标体系，用以衡量个人作业安全信用和所在组织安全信用。研究对于加强电力企业和相关一线作业企业安全管理，特别是涉及到大范围公共安全的个人作业，提供了上岗评估参考和个人与组织安全信用评价参考，并对不断提升安全信用和实现本质安全管理，有重要参考价值。
Like other credit, safety credit is the level of performance and commitment of employees to ensure that there are no accidents and hidden dangers, and can normally complete the work. Safety credit represents the safety, reliability and credibility of employees’ operation, and is one of the criteria for employees to take up their posts and complete their work smoothly. Based on Bayes theorem and principle, based on the safety operation data of front-line employees of State Grid, this paper constructs a dynamic evaluation index system of intrinsic safety credit of front-line workers in power enterprises, which is used to measure the personal safety credit and the safety credit of the organization. The research provides the reference for post assessment and personal and organizational safety credit evaluation for strengthening the safety management of electric power enterprises and related front-line operation enterprises, especially for personal operations involving a large range of public safety, and has important reference value for continuously im-proving safety credit and realizing intrinsic safety management.