The Determinants of Ballot

Although California often receives national attention for its budgeting at the ballot box, virtually all states engage in some level of it because bonds and constitutional amendments involving fiscal matters require voter approval. These decisions can constrain the discretion of policy makers, often making it harder to adopt annual budgets. Despite these consequences, little scholarly attention has been paid to this phenomenon. This article investigates the factors that lead to initiative use on budgetary matters. Specifically, data on California initiatives that earmark revenue or cut taxes from 1948 to 2004 are used to estimate count models. The results show that divided government and party polarization are central factors in determining the number of initiatives on the ballot, but they have divergent effects on earmarks and tax cuts. These factors increase initiative earmarks, while they reduce tax-cut initiatives. Budget conditions also play a significant role in the frequency of these measures