Framing Indeterminacy: Dialectical Analysis and Futures Studies

The dialectic is a very ancient device long used to comprehend historical process. Its versatility as a tool for informing on numerous issues of interest to those involved in futures studies is self-evident yet under-appreciated, not as a predicting device but as a framing one, much as with how catalysts work in chemistry. This piece first briefly describes the basics of the dialectical process and its application as an outcome framing method. Its connections with other forecasting methods especially with emerging issues analysis is discussed. The properties of dialectical processes are dynamic and do not necessarily conform to human-scale either temporally or spatially. Dialectical process related to social change and worldview are not subordinate to cyclic time except when artificially imposed as with political elections. The dialectical process being consistent with quantum mechanics especially as applied to technological impacts and legal enactment process will be discussed. In the latter instance, the dark matter and dark energy conundrum bear the hallmarks of a dialectical process thus far leading to an indeterminable resolution. While several examples of persistent issue contradictions to which dialectical analysis can be usefully applied are available, American health care policy is highlighted here