A Novel Risk Scoring System to Predict Cardiovascular Death in Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction: CHA2DS2

The present study aimed to determine the long-term prognostic validity of the CHA2DS2-VASc score in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). In addition, we formulated a novel scoring system, the CHA2DS2-VASc-CF (which includes cigarette smoking and a family history of coronary artery disease as risk factors). This study included 4373 consecutive patients with AMI who presented to the emergency department of our hospital and underwent cardiac catheterization procedures between December 2009 and September 2016. Among these patients, 1427 were diagnosed with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and 2946 were diagnosed with non-STEMI. The study included 4373 patients. The study population was divided into 2 groups according to the occurrence of cardiovascular death during the follow-up period. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the CHA2DS2-VASc-CF score, CHA2DS2-VASc score, major adverse cardiac events, current cigarette smoking, older age, hypertension, and family history of coronary artery disease were significantly higher, and that the left ventricular ejection fraction and glomerular filtration rate were significantly lower in the cardiovascular death (+) group. Using a cutoff score of >3 for the CHA2DS2-VASc-CF score, long-term cardiovascular death was predicted with a sensitivity of 78.4% and specificity of 76.4%. The CHA2DS2-VASc-CF score is suitable for use in all patients with AMI, regardless of the type of treatment, presence of atrial fibrillation, and type of AMI. This risk score, which is easy to calculate, provides important prognostic data. In the future, we think that interventional cardiologists will be able to use this novel scoring system to identify patients with a high risk of long-term cardiovascular death