Local government innovation diffusion in China: an event history analysis of a performance

The performance-based reform programme launched by Fujian province in 2000 has been adopted by many other Chinese provinces, including Zhejiang, Hebei, Anhui and Sichuan, over the past 12 years. This article aims to explore the antecedents of the adoption of this programme, in particular, the effects of senior figures' political promotion incentives and diffusion mechanisms. Specifically, event history analysis based on probit regression is used to examine data from 31 Chinese provinces for the 2000–2012 period. The results show that leaders' relative age and chances of being appointed to the Politburo, and distance to the general election, are significantly negatively correlated with the reform programme's adoption, but top-down diffusion is significantly positively correlated with it. This study confirms that the nomenklatura system in China shapes the diffusion of innovations through the mechanisms of political promotion incentives and intergovernmental interactions. Thus, the dynamics of innovation diffusion are, to some extent, rooted in particular political institutions and shaped by political contexts. Furthermore, the desire for political promotions may figure as a general deep reason for decisions about whether to adopt innovations; therefore, strengthening these incentives for adopting reforms becomes a key strategy