Forecast Bias and Fiscal Slack Accumulation in School Districts

The years during and after the Great Recession constrained revenue across all levels of government. Revenue shortfalls in states decreased intergovernmental transfers, which compounded the plight of local governments already facing large declines in own-source property taxes. Among the many casualties of this economic downturn were school districts, which responded by implementing a variety of financial management strategies to continue providing educational service provision to more than 50 million students across the United States. One strategy school districts continue to utilize is countercyclical stabilization of expenditures with fiscal slack, which raises an important—and, to date, largely unanswered—question of how school districts manage to accumulate fiscal slack, given both volatility and decreases in revenues in the years following the Great Recession. One approach is to use implicit slack from biased forecasts to generate explicit fiscal slack in the unassigned fund balance. This article provides evidence for this strategy by empirically testing it with data from Kentucky school districts from school years 2001-2002 to 2013-2014. The findings indicate that school districts are engaged in strategic planning with implicit fiscal slack, which allows them to accumulate explicit fiscal slack, a cornerstone of prudent financial management that can provide budgetary flexibility during financial uncertainty. The relationship between implicit and explicit fiscal slack is heterogeneous over the business cycle, providing further evidence of strategic planning. Practitioners can also use the findings of this article to support the strategic use of forecasts to help accumulate unassigned fund balance, particularly in the years after the Great Recession