考虑上游水利工程影响的产流预报方法研究

洪水预报是防洪减灾的一项重要非工程措施, 但是许多流域上修建的小型水库会对洪水预报的精度产生影 响。利用大伙房模型对门楼水库流域洪水进行预报, 针对流域上游小型水库影响, 利用流域场次洪水、前期土壤含 水量和小型水库库容与面积关系等资料, 给出了定量考虑小型水库截流的计算方法, 预报结果精度得到大幅度提高。 Flood predictio n is an impor tant no n2eng ineer ing measure for flood contr ol; how ever , small reservo ir s built in t he up2 str eam of many r iver basins can affect the pr edict ion precisio n. In this paper , DHF model was used to pr edict the flood in the Menlou reserv oir . Based on the relative data such as the separated flo ods in the basin, antecedent so il mo isture content, and the relat ionship betw een stor age capacity and area of small r eser voirs, a met ho d w as pro po sed predict flood in co nsideration of the quantitativ e closure of the small reserv oirs, w hich can impro ve the pr edict ion precision g reatly. 水利部公益性行业科研专项( 201201054)