大坝安全预警的综合信息模糊推理

现有大坝安全预警常用的多层次模糊评判方法存在不足，因此引入模糊推理模式，采用多重蕴含命题的特征展开近似推理的相关理论，研究了大坝安全预警的多重多维近似模糊推理方法。首先对反映大坝性态的强影响性驱动因子所表征的大坝状态和大坝警情进行模糊划分，通过事先归纳出的模糊条件语句构建推理大前提；然后以强影响性驱动因子所表征的大坝状态作为模糊推理系统的多输入，以大坝警情作为模糊系统的单输出，对现有的因子集组成的小前提根据模糊推理规则做出大坝警情的响应；最后实例分析了该方法的使用流程。 The multi-level fuzzy evaluation method is commonly used for the early warning for dam safety, but this method has deficiencies. In this paper, the fuzzy inference method was introduced and the related theories of approximate inference based on the features of multiple implicational propositions were used to determine a multi-dimensional approximate fuzzy inference method for early warning of dam safety. Firstly, the dam conditions and dam safety warning were performed fuzzy classification based on the strong driving factors reflecting dam characteristics, and the speculative premise was developed using the summarized fuzzy conditional statement. Secondly, the dam conditions represented by the strong driving factors were the multiple inputs of fuzzy inference system, the dam safety warning was the single output of fuzzy inference system, and the response of dam safety warning was determined by the small premise composed of current factors based on the fuzzy inference rule. Finally, case studies were presented to analyze the application process of the method. 国家自然科学基金资助项目（51209144；51209145；51209143；51139001；51109143；51079086）；中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目（Y713008；Y712005）