基于 TOPKAPI 模型的湿润流域洪水模拟

为了研究分布式水文模型在湿润流域的应用效果, 将基于物理的分布式 T OPKAPI 模型应用到淮河上游息县 以上流域, 模拟该区域 2007- 2017 年间的11 场次洪水过程, 分析模型的适用性。结果表明, TOPKAPI 模型在湿润 流域场次洪水模拟中精度尚可, 但随着流域面积的增大, 大坡岭、长台关、息县的平均纳什效率系数依次为 01 54、 01 5、01 29, 模拟精度有所下降; 在合理范围内调整滞时, 平均纳什效率系数最多提高 01 2, 在合理范围内调整河网蓄 水消退系数, 平均纳什效率系数最多提高 01 3, 考虑滞后演算法的 TOPKAPI 模型的平均纳什效率系数能达到 01 7。 分析结果表明, 合理采用滞后演算法的 T OPKAPI 模型能有效用于湿润流域的洪水预报。 In o rder to explo re the applicatio n effect of the distributed hydro lo gical mo del in a humid basin, the physical distributed TOPKAPI model w as applied to simulate the flo od ev ents in the upstr eam o f the H uaihe River. The model w as va lidated abov e Xix ian station w ith 11 floo d events betw een 2007 and 2017. The results showed that the accuracy of the mo del in the flo od simulatio n w as acceptable. T he mean Nash2Sutcliffe coefficient ( NSC) of Dapoling , Chang taig uan and, Xix ian w ere 01 54, 01 5 and 01 29, r espectiv ely, which ex hibited that the simulat ion accuracy of the mo del decreased w ith the incr ease of w atershed area. The mean NSC can be incr eased by up to 01 2 by adjust ing the lag time within a reasonable r ange, and up to 01 3 by adjust ing the recession co efficients o f wat er stor age in the basin. The mean NSC of the TOPKAPI model can be r eached 01 7 by considering lag2and2ro ute method, indicating that lag2and2route met ho d can be effect ively used for the TOPKAPI mo del fo r floo d simulations in a humid basin. 国家重点研发计划项目( 2018YFC1508103)