气候变化与人类活动影响下大清河流域上游河流径流响应研究

河北雄安新区的设立，引起了各界对雄安新区所在的大清河流域的广泛关注，特别是其水资源的变化特征与影响因素是了解雄安新区水资源情势的重要参考。研究解析了人类活动和气候变化对大清河流域上游径流过程的相对影响，采用SWAT模型模拟了大清河流域上游径流过程，并结合弹性系数法验证比对，分离了人类活动与气候变化对大清河流域上游径流过程的贡献率。结果表明，1981-2015年，大清河流域上游山区倒马关站及紫荆关站径流量均呈减少趋势，倒马关站及紫荆关站年径流量递减速率分别为0.10 m3/s及007 m3/s。人类活动为影响径流的主导因子，其贡献率为53.4%～60.8%；气候变化较人类活动影响径流稍小，其贡献率为39.2%～46.6%。研究结果可为支撑未来雄安新区建设区域水资源规划和管理提供依据。 The establishment of Xiong′an New Area in Hebei Province has attracted wide attentions from the whole scientific community.The Daqing River Basin,where the New Area is located,becomes a new focus for hydrological scientists.Particularly,the changing characteristics and causes of its water resources were of great importance to understanding the water resources situation of Xiong′an New Area.The relative influences of human activities and climate change on the runoff processes in the upper reaches of Daqing River Basin have been investigated with SWAT model.Elasticity method was also applied to compare the simulation results about the relative contributions of human activities and climate change to the runoff variations.Results showed that the runoff showed a generally decreasing trend from 1981 to 2015,with magnitudes of -0.10 m3/(s·a） and -0.07 m3/(s·a） at Daomaguan and Zijingguan stations,respectively.Human activities served as the leading factor,which contributed to 53.4% to 60.8% of the runoff variation,while climate change and variability contributed 39.2% to 46.6%.The research results are useful to understand the hydrological fluctuations in the upper reaches of the Daqing River,and can also be used as a reference for the future [JP]planning and management of regional water resources for the construction of Xiong′an New Area. 国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFC0406501）