清苑县南水北调配套工程运行风险评价

南水北调配套工程运行风险评估体系属于复杂的系统问题, 其模糊性在评估中应予以考虑。基于模糊识别理 论, 采用非线性模型对清苑县南水北调配套工程运行风险进行评价。结果表明, 清苑县南水北调配套工程运行风险 等级介于2 级与3 级之间, 略偏于2 级, 属于低风险等级。评价过程与评价结果不仅可为清苑县南水北调配套工程 的安全管理提供参考意义, 而且表明非线性模型在南水北调配套工程运行风险评价中具有良好的适用性。 The operation risk analy sis and assessment o f the suppo rting eng ineer ing in the South2to2Nor th Water Diver sion Pro2 ject is a complex sy stem pr oblem, and its fuzzy character istics need to be co nsider ed in t he evaluation. Based on the fuzzy recog2 nition theo ry , this paper used the no nlinear model t o evaluate the operatio n risk o f the suppor ting eng ineering in the South2to2 No rth Water Div ersion Pr oject o f Qing yuan County. The r esults show ed that operation risk lev el of the suppo rting eng ineer ing is betw een level 2 and level 3 and tends to level 2 slightly, w hich indicated that the risk is low. The evaluat ion pro cess and re2 sults can no t only pro vide reference v alue fo r the safety manag ement of the suppo rting eng ineer ing in the South2to2No rth Water Diver sion Pr oject o f Qingy uan County , but also demonstr ate that the nonlinear mo del is a pplicable to per form the r isk assess2 ment of the suppor ting eng ineer ing in the South2to2Nor th Water Diver sion Pr oject.