基于 ELECT RE III 的淮河流域水资源安全评价

为探讨淮河流域水资源安全问题, 建立了淮河流域水资源安全评价指标体系, 运用多准则决策方法)) ) ELECT RE III, 对淮河流域四省江苏、安徽、山东、河南 2006- 2012 年水资源安全性进行评价, 并利用净可信度得分 排序。结果显示: 水资源安全性( 1) 就不同省份而言, 江苏省相对最好, 其次为安徽省、河南省, 山东省相对最差; ( 2) 就不同年份而言, 2011 年最好, 最高达 71 62, 最低为- 01 82, 全部处于较危机等级, 而 2006 年相对较差, 最高达 - 21 03, 最低为- 181 37, 除江苏省外全部处于危机水平; ( 3) 就同一省份不同年份而言, 随着时间的变化, 四省份的 水资源安全性评价结果总体呈现出先上升再下降, 后又上升转而再下降的/ M0 型趋势。该评价方法与评价指标体 系适用性较强, 评价结果较为客观, 为淮河流域水资源安全评价提供了一个新视角和新方法。合理水资源安全评价 定量和趋势分析, 可为淮河流域水资源合理开发和可持续利用提供科学依据与决策支持。 In order to explore the w ater r eso ur ces security ( WRS) pr oblem in H uaihe Riv er Basin, w e est ablished the w ater re2 sour ces security evaluation index sy stem of the H uaihe River Basin. Using the mult i2criteria decisio n2making method2ELECTRE III, w e evaluated the water resour ces securit y o f four prov inces in the H uaihe Riv er Basin ( Jiangsu, Anhui, Shando ng and Henan) fr om 2006 to 2012 and r anked them by net co nfidence scor e. The results show ed that: ( 1) Amo ng these pr ovinces, Jian2 g su Pro vince had the best WRS situation, followed by Anhui Pro vince and H enan Pro vince, while Shandong Prov ince had the wo rst. ( 2) Thr oughout the years, the WRS sit uation in Huaihe River Basin w as the best in 2011, w ith the highest scor e reaching 7. 62 and the lowest - 0. 82, all at the near2crisis level; the situatio n w as the w o rst in 2006, w ith the hig hest sco re reaching - 21 03 and the low est - 18. 37, a ll at the crisis lev el ex cept fo r Jiang su Pro vince. ( 3) For o ne pr ovince thr oughout the y ears, wit h the chang e of time, the w ater resources security o f the fo ur pr ovinces all showed an M2shaped trend of first increasing , then decreasing , and then increasing and decr easing ag ain. T his method and ev aluatio n index system hav e str ong applicability and can pr ov ide relatively objective evaluation results. T hey pr esent a new perspect ive and a new method for w ater resour ces security e2 v aluatio n in the Huaihe River Basin. The pro per quantitat ive and t rend analysis of WRS will pro vide a scientific basis fo r reasonable development and sustainable ut ilization of w ater r eso ur ces in the H uaihe River Basin. 国家重点研发计划( 2016YFC0401305) ; 水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项( 2017ZX073012001)