京津冀地区近 55 年气候演变特征分析

基于京津冀地区 22 个气象站 1961- 2015 年的逐月气候资料, 采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall 突变检测、 Morlet 小波分析、反距离权重插值(IDW) 等方法, 研究了近 55 a 来京津冀地区气象要素的时空演变规律。结果表明: (1) 京津冀地区整体呈现出降水减少、气温上升、日照减少、相对湿度降低、风速下降的趋势。(2) 各气候要素都在 1979- 1989 年间发生了突变, 年降水在 1996 年发生了第二次突变。(3) 各气候要素均表现出多时间尺度耦合的复杂特性, 其第一主周期尺度介于 8~ 25 a 之间。(4) 年均温由南向北递减, 中、西部为升温速率的高值区; 降水及 其变率均自东向西递减; 日照时数由南向北递增, 而其变率则与之相反; 相对湿度由东南向西北递减, 其变率则由西南向东北递减; 平均风速及其变率的高值中心均为张北和塘沽。 Based on the climatic data of 22 meteorological stations in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1961 to 2015, by means of the climate tendency rate, Mann-Kendall mutation test, Morlet wavelet analysis, and inverse distance weighting (IDW) , we systematically studied the temporal-spatial variations of climatic variables over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the recent 55 years. The results showed that: 1) In the past 55 years, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region underwent an increase of temperature and a decrease of sunshine, precipitation, wind speed, and average relative humidity. 2) The climatic variables all went through a sudden change in 1979-1989, and the annual precipitation went through a second sudden change in 1996. 3) The climatic variables all showed a complex characteristic of coupling at multiple time scales, and their first main period scales ranged from 8 to 25 years. 4) In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the average air temperature showed a decreasing trend from south to north, with the change rate peaking in the central and western area. Both precipitation and its change rate showed a decreasing trend from east to west. Sunshine hours showed an increasing trend from south to north, while its change rate showed the opposite trend. Relative humidity showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest, while its change rate showed a decreasing trend from southwest to northeast. The peaks of wind speed and its change rate both appeared in Zhangbei and Tanggu area. 河北省教育厅青年基金项目( QN2017096)