五指山市近 60 年降雨量时空演变规律分析

为了解五指山市近几十年降雨量的变化规律, 基于市内及周边 17 个雨量站/ 气象站资料, 采用不同插值方法 逐月插值, 与海南省水资源二次评价对比得到合理方法; 并用滑动平均法、累积距平法、Mann2Kendall 非参数检验 法及 Morlet 小波分析等方法对降雨量进行时空变化分析, 得到如下结果: 五指山市近 60 年多年平均降雨量为 1 9211 3 mm, 在空间上呈现由东北、正北向西南逐渐递减的趋势, 不同丰枯情景下降雨分布略有差异, 但其对地形 的响应较为一致; 年降雨量总体呈现显著增加的态势, 并且在 1988 年左右存在由减少到增多的突变; 借助 SPSS 软 件, 通过归因分析表明, 蒸发主要影响着五指山市降雨的变化规律; 降雨量存在多尺度时间效应, 存在 23 a 和 16 a 左右的主周期, 且均存在丰枯交替变化, 并在未来几年均处在偏丰时期。研究结果对五指山市的水资源开发利用和 规划具有现实指导意义。 In or der to illustrat e t he v ariat ion char acteristic of precipitation in Wuzhishan City in the r ecent 60 y ears, based on the data o f 17 rainfall statio ns/ meteo ro log ical statio ns, we used different interpolation metho ds t o co nduct monthly inter po lation and compar ed the r esults w ith the Seco nd Evaluation results of H ainan Pr ovince, and thus selected the reasonable method. We ana2 lyzed t he spat ial and tempora l changes of precipitation using sliding av erag e method, cumulativ e anomaly method, Mann2Kendall no nparametric test, and M orlet w av elet analy sis. T he r esults w ere as fo llows: ( 1) The aver age precipitat ion in the past 60 years of Wuzhishan was 1921. 3mm and show ed a g radually declining tr end spatially fr om the no rtheast and north to the southwest. ( 2) The distributio n o f pr ecipitatio n differed slig htly across different scenarios, but show ed co nsistent response to topog raphy. ( 3) The annual pr ecipitatio n generally show ed a significant increasing trend, w ith a sudden change from decreasing to increasing around 1988. ( 4) The r esults of attribution analy sis w ith SPSS show ed that the ev apo ratio n mainly affected the v ariation patter n of precipitation in Wuzhishan. ( 5) T her e are multi2scale time effects o f precipitatio n and majo r cy cles of 23 years and 16 years wit h alternatio ns between wet and dr y y ears. T he next few years w ill be w et years. The abov e results hav e r ealist ic sig nificance to the dev elopment, utilization, and planning of w ater r eso urces in Wuzhishan. 国家重点研发计划项目( 2016YFA0601503) ; 国家自然科学基金项目(51779144); 工程院院士科技咨询项目( 20152ZD2162 02203)