基于 Budyko 假设的若尔盖流域径流变化归因分析

变化环境下的水文循环研究是当今水科学研究的热点之一, 研究流域水文过程变化的响应机制, 对未来流域水 资源规划及管理具有重要的现实意义。以若尔盖流域为研究区域, 基于 Budy ko 假设理论, 应用敏感性分析方法, 对若 尔盖流域径流变化进行归因分析, 结果表明: 若尔盖流域径流对降水、潜在蒸散发和流域特征参数的敏感性系数分别 为01 645 1、- 01 234 7和- 1821 205 0, 即若尔盖流域降水每增加 1 mm 将导致流域径流增加01 645 1 mm, 潜在蒸散发每 增加 1 mm 将导致流域径流减少01 234 7 mm, 流域特征参数每增加 1 将导致流域径流减少1821 205 0 mm; 若尔盖流域 逐年径流呈明显的下降趋势, 与基准期( 1960 - 1990 年) 相比, 变化期( 1991 - 2011 年) 径流量减少了 561 23 mm ( 201 48% ) , 其主要影响因素为流域下垫面特征的变化, 其贡献率可达 931 46% , 而气候变化的影响仅占 51 57% 。 The hydro logic cycle r esearch under changing env ironment is o ne of the hot topics in water science study. The study on the re2 sponse mechanism to hydrological process chang es is of great practical significance to futur e water r esources planning and management. In this study, based on the Budyko hypo thesis, we conducted attribution analysis of the streamflow chang es in the Zoige basin by sensi2 tivity analysis, and the results showed that: the sensitiv ity coefficients of streamflow to precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and catchment characteristic parameter were 01 654 1, - 01 234 7, and - 1821 205 0, respectively, which means that every 1 mm increase in precipitatio n would induce a 01 654 1 mm increase in str eamflow; every 1 mm increase in potential ev apotranspiration would induce a 01 234 7 mm decrease in streamflow ; every increase of 1 in the catchment characteristic parameter would induce a 1821 205 0 mm de2 crease in streamflow . The streamflow of the Zoige basin showed a sig nificantly decreasing tr end. Compared with the reference period ( 196021990) , the streamflow o f the chang e perio d ( 199122011) decreased by 561 23 mm ( 201 48% ) . The main influence factor w as the change of underlying surface characteristics, whose contribution rate reached 931 46%. The climate chang e only contributed 51 . 57% . 中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金(C AFINT 2015K06) ; 国家自然科学基金( 51609243) ; 中国水利水电科学研究院 流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放研究基金( IWHR2 SKL2201612p)