系统动力学模型在成都市水生态承载力评估方面的应用

基于成都市水生态现状，为提高其水生态承载力，促进经济发展和提高人民生活水平，运用系统动力学（SD）的方法，建立了成都市水生态—经济—人口—水资源—水环境的耦合系统，模拟了现状延续型、节约用水型、污染防治型和综合协调型四种情景模式。模拟结果显示：在模拟年限内（2014年－2020年），现状延续型和污染防治型未能有效降低水生态承载限制系数，水生态问题将进一步加剧；节约用水型和综合防治型都可以降低水生态承载限制系数，但节约用水型不能显著减低该系数，只有通过节约用水和污染防治相结合的综合防治型，才可以更加有效的减低该系数，该情景模式是提高水生态承载力的最佳模式；到2020年，该情景模式下成都市的水生态承载限制系数下降为0.297，与2010年的相比，下降了59.4%。研究结果可为成都市水生态保护提供技术依据。 In order to enhance the water ecological carrying capacity of Chengdu city whilst promoting the development of economy and improving the living standards of the people, System Dynamics (SD) method was applied to build a coupled system of water ecology – economy – population – water resources – water environment of the city based on the status quo of water ecology. Four scenario patterns including status-continuing, water-saving, pollution-controlling, and integrated-coordination were simulated by the SD model. Simulation results showed that: in the analog period (2014 to 2020), the status-continuing and pollution-controlling scenario patterns can not effectively reduce the limit coefficient of water ecological carrying capacity, resulting in further deterioration of water ecological problems. However, the water-saving and integrated-coordination scenario patterns can reduce the limit coefficient of water ecological carrying capacity. It should be noted that the water-saving scenario pattern can not significantly reduce the coefficient. The integrated-coordination pattern combining water-saving and pollution-controlling measures can reduce the coefficient more effectively. It is the best pattern to improve the water ecological carrying capacity. With the aforementioned recommended pattern, the limit coefficient of water ecological carrying capacity can be reduced to 0.297 for Chengdu City by 2020, down by 59.4% compared with that of 2010. The research results can provide technical basis for water ecological protection in Chengdu city.