节水条件下玛纳斯河流域绿洲变化及适宜规模分析

干旱区节水灌溉技术的大面积推广, 有效的推动了绿洲化进程, 使绿洲规模不断扩大。针对节水条件下流域 尺度绿洲适度规模问题, 以膜下滴灌技术的发源地玛纳斯河流域为例, 利用 1976- 2015 年五期卫星遥感影像, 分析 了节水条件下流域绿洲面积变化过程, 基于水热平衡理论构建了绿洲适宜规模计算模型, 确定了节水条件下流域绿 洲适宜发展规模。结果表明: 1976- 2015 年玛纳斯河流域绿洲总面积扩张 3881 3 km2, 人工绿洲面积扩张3 8731 3 km2 , 天然绿洲面积缩减3 4851 0 km2 ; 计算得出玛纳斯河流域绿洲适宜规模为4 0251 9~ 4 4991 8 km2 , 目前绿洲实 际规模超出绿洲适宜规模的 31 4 倍, 且绿洲稳定指数 H 0 为 01 46, 表明绿洲处于亚稳定状态; 为了进一步保证绿洲 稳定性, 玛纳斯河流域适宜耕地面积应为1 8011 6~ 2 0131 7 km2。研究结果说明, 不合理的绿洲开发, 威胁到整个 绿洲的稳定, 确定绿洲适宜规模, 可以为绿洲的稳定和可持续发展提供基础科学依据。 The lar ge2scale promotion of w ater2saving irrig atio n technolo gy in arid ar eas has effect ively promoted the oasisizatio n pr ocess and expanded the scale of oasis. Reg arding the appr opriate scale of o asis on watershed sca le under w ater2sav ing condi2 tion, we conducted a case study on the Manas Riv er Basin, w here t he drip irrigat ion t echnolog y o riginates. We used the fiv e2 peri2 o d satellite r emote sensing imag es fr om 1976 to 2015 to analyze t he chang e pr ocess o f oasis area under w ater2saving condition. Based o n the theo ry o f water2heat balance, w e co nstr ucted a calculation model for the suitable sca le of oasis, and determ ined the suitable development scale o f t he basin o asis under w ater2sav ing condition. T he r esults show ed that: From 1976 to 2015, the to2 tal ar ea o f the o asis in the M anas Riv er Basin ex panded by 3881 3 km2; the ar ea o f the art ificial oasis ex panded by 3 8731 3 km2 ; and the area of the natural oasis diminished by 3 485. 0 km2. Calculatio n sugg ested that the suitable scale of the oasis in the Ma2 nas Riv er Basin is 4 0251 924 4991 8 km2. The actual sca le of the oasis ex ceeds the appro priate scale of the o asis by 31 4 times. The oasis stabilit y index H 0 is 01 46, indicating the oasis is in a metastable state. In o rder to ensure the stability o f the oasis, the suitable cultivated area of the Manas River Basin should be 1 8011 622 0131 7 km2 . The r esear ch results sug gested that unreasonable development o f oasis can thr eat en the safety and stability o f the oasis. Determining t he suitable scale of oasis can pro vide a basic scientific basis for the stability and sustainable develo pment of o asis. 国家自然科学基金( 41601579) ; 国家重点研发计划专项( 2017YFC0404303) ; 新疆生产建设兵团高等学校优秀青年教师培养计划 项目( CZ027204)