近 59 年广西气象要素时空变化特征分析

基于广西 25 个气象台站 1958- 2016 年的气象资料, 采用 Daniel 趋势检验法、Lee2H eghinan 变异检验法、 M orlet 小波分析法、R/ S 分析法和克里金插值等方法, 对广西年日照时数、年平均风速、年降水量、年平均相对湿度 和年平均气温的时空变化进行了分析。结果表明: 近 59 年广西年日照时数、年平均风速和年平均相对湿度呈减小 趋势, 年降水量和年平均气温表现出微弱增加趋势; 各气象要素分别在 1979 年、1974 年、2011 年、2002 年和1997 年 发生变异; 各气象要素均表现出多时间尺度耦合的复杂特性, 第一主周期分别为 22 a、29 a、31 a、26 a 和 13 a; 各气 象要素的 Hurst 指数均大于 01 5, 说明未来变化趋势将继续与过去变化趋势保持一致; 在空间上, 广西年日照时数 由西北向东南递减, 年平均风速、年降水量、年平均相对湿度和年平均气温由北向南递增。 Based on the meteo rolog ical data of 25 met eo ro lo gical stat ions in Guangx i fr om 1958 to 2016, w e ado pted Daniel trend test method, Lee2H eg hinan test, Morlet wav elet analy sis, R/ S analysis, and Kriging interpolation to analy ze the spatial and tem2 por al v ariat ions of the sunshine duratio n, w ind speed, precipit ation, relat ive hum idity, and temperature data in Guang xi. T he re2 sults show ed that in the past 59 years, the annual sunshine duration, annual av erag e w ind speed, and annual av erag e r elativ e hu2 midit y show ed a decr easing tr end; the annual precipitation and annual aver age t em perat ur e show ed a slight rising tr end; these facto rs r espectively had abr upt chang es in 1979, 1974, 2011, 2002 and 1997; they all show ed the complex char act eristic o f multi - time sca le coupling, and their first main periods w ere 22 a, 29 a, 31 a, 26 a and 13 a, respectiv ely ; the H urst indexes o f these met eo ro lo gical fact ors w ere all g reater than 01 5, indicating that the futur e tr end w ill still be consistent w ith the past tr end. In space, the annual sunshine durat ion in Guangx i declined fr om the northwest to the so utheast, wher eas the annual aver age w ind speed, annual precipitat ion, annual aver age relativ e humidity , and annual aver age temper at ur e showed a rising tr end from north to south. 国家自然科学基金( 51569003; 51609041) ; 广西自然科学基金( 2017GXNSFAA198361)