水资源承载力评价指标约简方法研究

针对传统水资源承载力评价指标数量较多且分类过细，对资料要求较高，部分指标独立性较低，指标间存在明显相关或间接相关等不足，提出了基于敏感度分析及动态聚类分析的指标约简方法，以剔除不必要的指标，建立一套简洁实用的水资源承载力评价指标体系。首先采用敏感度分析进行指标初步筛选，其次运用关联系数对指标进行动态聚类，根据聚类结果进一步约简指标，实现了评价指标的有效约简。采用上述方法对湖州市水资源承载力评价指标进行约简，将约简后的指标集用于湖州市2011年至2016年水资源承载力动态评价，评价方法采用集对评价法。评价结果表明湖州市2011年至2016年水资源承载状态总体呈向好态势，与湖州市实际情况基本相符，验证了该套指标约简方法在湖州地区的合理性和有效性，为其他地区水资源承载力评价指标约简提供了一些新思路。 An index reduction method was proposed to eliminate unnecessary indexes and to establish a simple and practical water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) model,based on sensitivity analysis and dynamic cluster analysis.It overcame the shortcomings of the traditional WRCC model,such as,many quantities,fine classifications,rich data requirements and not independence or indirect correlations.Firstly,the sensitivity analysis was used to screen the indexes initially.Secondly,the correlation coefficient was used to cluster the indexes dynamically.According to the clustering results,the number of index was further reduced,and the effective reduction of indexes was achieved.This model was then used in Huzhou City to calculate its WRCC from 2011 to 2016.The results showed that the WRCC states of Huzhou has been developed well from 2011 to 2016,which was basically consistent with the actual conditions,which verified the rationality and effectiveness of the model.Meanwhile,the proposed method provided some new aspects of the WRCC evaluation and can be used in other regions of the country to estimate WRCC. 国家自然科学基金项目（51379181）