变化环境对潮河下游径流一致性的影响

水文分析要求径流资料的时间序列一致性，但变化的环境破坏了径流序列的稳定一致性变化规律。气候变化和频繁的人类活动的影响下（水利工程建设、植被覆盖改变和城市化建设等），流域的下垫面条件和产流物理机制发生了明显变化，导致径流序列出现变异情况，不能满足频率计算分析水文时间序列一致性的要求和同分布的假定。应用Mann-Kendall非参数秩次检验法、Pettitt检验法、方差分析法对潮河流域下游下会站1976年－2012年的年、月径流和降水时间序列的趋势成分、突变成分、周期成分和随机成分分别进行了检验和识别，并通过对比分析降雨和径流时间序列的成分，推断出气候变化和人类活动的变化环境对潮河流域下游降水和径流演变过程的影响。 Hydrological analysis requires the time-series consistency of runoff data, but the changing environment destroys the stability of runoff series. Under the influence of climate change and frequent human activities (water conservancy project construction, vegetation cover change and urbanization construction), the underlying surface conditions and physical mechanism of runoff yield changed obviously, resulting in runoff series variation which can not meet the requirements of consistency of hydrological time series and the same distribution. This paper identifies the trend components, the mutation components, the cyclical components and the random components of the annual and monthly runoff sequences and the rainfall date sequence recorded at the Xiahui Station in the lower reaches of the Chao River during 1976-2012 by using non-parametric Mann-Kendall rank test, Pettitt test and variance analysis respectively. By comparing these components between runoff sequences and rainfall date sequence, this paper concludes that the factor of rainfall is not the only one that leads to runoff changes, but the conjoint effect of climate change and human activities on the evolution process of the lower reaches of Chao River basin. 长江科学院开放研究基金资助项目(CKWV2015232/KY)；国家自然科学基金（51641901）；国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402208)