时变增益模型在辽宁干旱半干旱流域的适用性研究

自然流域属于典型复杂开放的系统, 水文要素的时空变化具有高度非线性的特点, 干旱半干旱流域尤其显著。 因此, 针对干旱半干旱流域降雨径流非线性问题, 运用水文非线性时变增益模型( T VGM) 、GR4J 模型、总径流线性 响应模型及线性扰动模型对辽宁省干旱半干旱流域日径流过程进行模拟分析, 从 2 个精度衡量指标对 4 个模型的 应用效果进行较为深入的对比分析, 探究这 4 个模型在干旱半干旱流域降雨径流模拟中的适用性。结果表明: 在辽 宁省干旱半干旱流域的水文模拟中, T VGM 模型适用性最好、GR4J 模型次之, 两种线性模型适用性较差。TVGM 模型引入时变增益因子, 综合考虑了土壤湿度、降雨强度等产流的关键要素, 其模拟和验证效果都比较理想, 体现了 该模型的特色和应用价值。 Natural w atershed is a typical complex open sy stem, and the tempo2spatial v ariation of hydro lo gical elements is hig hly no nlinear especially in arid and semiarid w atersheds. Therefor e, focusing o n the no nlinear r elatio nship bet ween rainfall and r un2 o ff in arid and semiarid w atersheds, this paper applied the T ime Variant Gain Mo del ( TVGM ) , GR4J, To tal Linear Response Model( TLR) , and Linear Perturbation Model( LPM) to simulate the da ily str eamflow in Liaoning Prov ince, China. We compared the applicat ion effects o f the four mo dels in terms of tw o accuracy measures to investig ate the applicability of these four mo dels in the simulatio n o f rainfall and runoff in arid and semiarid w atersheds. The r esults show ed that the TVGM mo del w as the best cho ice, followed by the GR4J mo del, w hereas the tw o linear mo dels perfo rmed po orly in the hy dr olog ical simulat ion of arid and semi2arid w at ersheds in Liaoning Prov ince. T he TVGM mo del intr oduced the t ime v ariant gain factor and consider ed the key facto rs ( e. g . , w atershed wetness and rainfall intensity) of runo ff generatio n. It presented much mo re satisfying results t han the other mo dels during the calibratio n and validat ion perio ds. T his is the char acteristic and application value of T VGM model. 国家自然科学基金( 41571028)