成都市水生态足迹的时间分布特征及其影响因素

为了加强对成都市水资源可持续利用的规划与管理, 运用水生态足迹计算模型分析成都市 2000- 2016 年水 生态足迹变化, 并基于 LMDI 分解法分析成都市水生态足迹影响因素。结果显示, 成都市水资源总量生态足迹逐年 增大, 2012 年以后略有下降; 农业用水在整个用水结构中占比最高, 生态足迹最高; 其次为工业用水、生活用水、生 态用水占比。成都市 2000- 2016 年水生态承载力先增大后降低, 水生态盈余( 赤字) 逐年增大, 万元 GDP 水生态足 迹逐年下降, 水资源负载指数逐年提高。说明成都市水资源利用程度高、利用效率高, 但开发潜力小, 水资源供给压 力依然巨大。从影响因素的结构性分析来看, 经济因素发挥主导作用, 结构因素的抑制作用还未显现, 人口因素的 促进作用不够显著, 技术因素的抑制作用显著。 In or der to str eng then the planning and management o f sustainable w ater resource utilization, this paper used the w ater eco log ical foot print calculatio n model to analyze the changes of water ecolog ical foo tprint and the relev ant influencing factors based o n LMDI decomposition metho d f rom 2000 to 2016 in Chengdu, City . T he result show ed that the ecolog ical foot print of total water resources in Chengdu has an upw ard trend w it h a decline after the y ear 2012. Agricultural w ater accounted for the highest pro po rtio n in t he entire water str ucture and the highest ecolog ical foo tprint; follow ed by indust rial, domestic, and ecolog2 ical wat er. T he ecolog ical w ater carry ing capacity o f Chengdu firstly show ed an increase in trend w hile a decrease f rom 2000 to 2016. The eco lo gica l w ater def icit and the w ater r eso ur ces load index increased y ear by year, w her eas the ecolog ical w ater foo t2 print of 10, 000 yuan GDP decr eased y ear by year. It was illust rated that Chengdu has a hig h deg ree and high efficiency o f w ater resource utilizat ion. H ow ever, its development potential was small, and the pressure on w ater supply was hug e. From t he struc2 tur al analy sis of the interfering factors, economic facto rs play a leading ro le, and the inhibitor y effect of structural elements has no t yet appear ed. Besides, the promo tio n of demo gr aphic factors w as not sig nificant, while the inhibitio n o f techno lo gical ele2 ments was sig nificant . 国家统计局统计信息技术与数据挖掘重点开放实验室开放课题( SDL201708)