海河流域暴雨洪水演变趋势分析

随着经济社会迅速发展及人口增加，海河流域内人类活动的影响不断加剧，流域下垫面条件发生了明显变化。利用海河流域翔实的水文资料，采用统计分析法和Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法，分析了人类活动及气候变化情景下海河流域暴雨洪水特征变化规律及变化趋势，认为近年来海河流域暴雨洪水呈现减少趋势。研究结果为流域洪水系列一致性修正奠定了基础，为防汛抗旱、流域防洪规划与管理提供了技术支撑。 With the rapidly economic and social development and population increase, the impacts of human activities aggravate in the Haihe River Basin, resulting in significant changes in the underlying surface conditions. Based on the hydrological data in detail in the Haihe River Basin, the statistical analysis and Mann Kendall rank correlation test were used to analyze the variation rule and trend of storm flood in the Haihe River Basin under the conditions of human activities and climate changes. The results suggested that storm flood has a decreasing trend in the basin. Research results can lay the foundations for the consistency correction of flood series and provide technical support for the planning and management of flood control and drought relief in the basin.