现代水网建设的区域生态效应可变模糊评价

现代水网建设旨在解决区域水资源短缺、地下水超采以及生态恶化等问题, 为了评估现代水网建设的生态功能, 对现代水网建设产生的生态效应进行评价。以青州市为研究区域, 以 2013 年为基准年, 2020 年和 2025 年为规划年, 在 50%、75% 和 95% 保证率下, 通过青州市现代水网进行水资源优化配置和调度, 根据配置和调度结果, 选取 5 个生态效应评价指标, 构建生态效应评价指标体系, 采用可变模糊评价法, 对青州市现代水网建设产生的生态效应进行评价。结果表明, 青州市现代水网建设后, 生态状况等级比建设前提升了 1~ 3 级, 生态环境明显改善。因此, 区域现代水网建设和生态调度对生态环境改善有重要作用。 The modern water network construction is intended to solve the problems of water shortage, groundwater overdraft, and ecological deterioration. This paper evaluates the ecological effects of modern water network construction so as to assess the ecological function of modern water network construction. We took Qingzhou City as the research area, and took 2013 as the base year and 2020 and 2025 as the planning years. At 50%, 75% and 95% assurance rates, we conducted optimal allocation and dispatching of water resources through Qingzhou modern water network. According to the allocation and dispatching results, we selected 5 evaluation indexes of ecological effects, and constructed an index system of ecological effects evaluation. Using variable fuzzy evaluation method, we evaluated the ecological effects of the construction of modern water network in Qingzhou. The results showed that the ecological level improved by 1-3 grades after the modern water network was constructed, and the ecological environment was obviously improved. Therefore, the regional modern water network construction and ecological dispatching play an important role in improving the ecological environment. “十二五”国家科技支撑项目“南水北调河渠湖库联合调控关键技术研究与示范”(2015BAB07B02) ; 山东省水利厅、山东省重大水利科研与技术推广专项资助项目“山东省区域水网运行管理技术与生态效应研究”(SDSLKY201501) 与“跨流域调水工程水资源优化配置及供水决策支持系统研究”(SDSLKY201222)