基于模糊优选和可信性的农业水资源多目标优化配置模型

干旱半干旱流域内社会、经济和生态问题多是由水资源匮乏或管理不当导致的, 因此寻求有效的水资源管理方法至关重要。针对农业水资源配置过程的多目标性和不确定性问题, 建立了一个多目标模糊可信性优化模型 (MFCP) 。该模型不仅通过定量分析不同目标在农业发展中的权重, 对决策变量的综合效益进行模糊优选, 还基于模糊可信理论处理了模糊参数。所开发的 MFCP 模型应用于甘肃省武威市民勤灌区进行实证研究, 构建了以经济、生态和社会效益为目标、以水土资源自然禀赋限制等为约束的水资源优化配置模型。结果表明, 可以通过减小玉米和葵花种植面积、增大瓜类和蔬菜的面积达到区域综合效益最优。以 2015 年为例, 与优化前现状相比, 优化后的方案在减少 11.1% 的种植总面积的情况下, 能节约水量 12.6% 、提高经济收益 13.8% 。 Many economic, social and ecological problems in arid and semi-arid watersheds can be attributed to the scarcity and mismanagement of water resources. Therefore, it is extremely important to seek effective water resources management methods. In this research, a multi-objective fuzzy credibility programming (MFCP) model was developed for supporting agricultural water resources management. This model can conduct fuzzy optimal selection of the comprehensive benefits of the decision-making variables by quantitatively analyzing the weights of different objectives in agricultural development. It can also deal with fuzzy parameters based on the fuzzy credibility theory. The MFCP model was applied to Minqin County in Wuwei city , Gansu province. An optimization model for water resources was established with economic, ecological, and social benefits as the objectives, with the water and land resources endowment as physical restraints. Results showed that the comprehensive benefits of this region could be optimized by reducing the planting area of corns and sunflowers and increasing the area of melons and vegetables. Compared with the actual situation in 2015, the optimized scheme could save 12.6% water resources and increase economic revenue by 13.8% , while reducing the total planting area by 11.1% . 国家自然科学基( 51639009; 51779255; 51621061)