银川市气候变化趋势及其与城市发展的关系

基于宁夏银川气象站的气象数据( 1951 年- 2013 年) , 运用滑动平均、Mann2Kendall 方法研究银川市的气候 变化趋势; 采用滑动平均和Spearman 相关系数, 分析了近20 a 各气候要素变化和城市发展的关系。结果表明: 总 体上1990 年前的气候要素变化比较平缓, 但是之后各气候要素变化趋势比较明显, 风速明显降低, 平均、最高和最 低气温显著上升, 而相对湿度和日照时数呈显著下降趋势。综合分析了城市发展与气温、相对湿度以及日照时数变 化的关系, 发现城市工业总产值增加和建筑面积增加与温度升高有明显的正相关关系, 而与相对湿度和日照时数表 现为负相关关系。 Based on the meteor olo gical data from 1951 t o 2013 at Yinchuan station o f Ningx ia H ui Autonomous District, the mov2 ing aver age and Mann2Kenda ll t est methods wer e used to investig ate t he climate change trend in Yinchuan, and the relat ionship betw een urban dev elopment and climat ic fact ors in r ecent 20 years w as analy zed using t he mov ing aver age and Spearmanc s Rho test metho d. The results showed that most climatic facto rs var ied slightly befor e 1990, but chang ed signif icantly since then, and the mean, max imum, and m inimum temperatur es incr eased significantly w hile w ind speed, mean relativ e humidit y, and sunshine ho ur s decreased significantly. Comprehensive analysis of the r elationship betw een the ur ban development and climatic factor s show ed that incr easing of tot al industr ial output v alue and building ar ea in the city has a po sitiv e co rrelatio n w ith the increasing of temperature w hile a negative cor relat ion w ith the incr easing of r elative humidit y and sunshine hours. 国家自然科学基金( 51179005; 51479004) ; 宁夏自然科学基金( NZ1037)