引调水 PPP 项目利益分配的 Shapley 方法

科学合理的利益分配机制是引调水 PPP 项目成功的关键, 基于利益分配基本原则, 结合引调水 PPP 项目特性, 构建利益分配影响因子体系; 然后在 Shapley 值法的基础上, 运用模糊综合评判法确定利益分配影响因子的权重, 建立了基于 Shapley 值改进的引调水 PPP 项目利益分配机制模型, 以协调各方利益分配, 使各方利益都实现最大化; 最后将建立的模型应用到工程实例中, 验证了模型的可行性和有效性。结果表明: 与初始分配方案相比, 改进后的利益分配机制不仅满足了个体理性以及群体理性, 且衡量了各利益相关者的实际贡献, 更为贴近实际。该分配方式对引调水 PPP 项目总利益不产生影响, 而只对分配比例产生影响, 其政府、社会资本方及引调水 PPP 项目特许经营公司的利益分配系数分别为 0. 35、0. 41、0. 24。 A scientific and reasonable profit distribution mechanism is the key to the success of water diversion PPP project. Based on the basic principles of prof it distribution, we constructed an impact factor system of profit distribution with consideration to the features of water diversion PPP projects. Then, based on the Shapley value, we used the fuzzy synthetic method to determine the weight of each impact factor of profit distribution, and established an improved profit distribution model for water diversion PPP projects, so as to coordinate profit distribution and maximize profits for all stakeholders. Finally, we applied the model to an engineering case and verified the feasibility and validity of the model. The results showed that compared with the initial allocation scheme, the improved profit distribution mechanism not only can satisfy both individual rationality and group rationality, but also can measure the actual contribution of various stakeholders more truthfully. It does not affect the total profit of the water diversion PPP project, and only affects the distribution ratio between government, social capital, and franchise company of water diversion PPP project, whose profit distribution coefficients were 0.35, 0.41, and 0.24, respectively . 国家自然科学基金( 51609128)