Scenario planning, a method for structured thinking about the future, offers an important tool for integrating scientific and stakeholder knowledge at different scales to explore alternative natural resource management and policy options. However, actual examples of such integration are rare. A scenario planning exercise was conducted in Milne Bay Province, Papua New Guinea, to integrate knowledge among scientists, ecotourism experts, and ecotourism stakeholders to explore possible futures for Milne Bay's nascent ecotourism industry. Four scenarios focused on climate change and technology, highlighting the risks and opportunities associated with rapid information exchange, and options to develop alternative ecotourism activities despite climate change impacts on natural assets. Although ecosystem-based management strategies were not investigated in detail by participants, all scenarios recognized and identified important cross-scale partnerships required to achieve sustainable management of natural resources and to promote ecotourism. An evaluation of changes in perceptions at the beginning and end of the scenario exercise suggests that participants became more aware of social and ecosystem processes occurring at broad spatial and temporal scales. 1. Introduction Marine ecosystem management operates in a context of high uncertainty due to processes that occur at and across multiple spatial and temporal scales [1, 2]. This is particularly so in the Pacific Islands, where uncertainty in marine management stems in part from local cultural norms that can influence resource use and conservation decisions [3–5] and a general lack of data to support decision-making [6, 7]. In this context of uncertainty, planning for the future presents a challenge and is confounded by complex system dynamics such as nonlinearity and reflexivity—people’s actions in response to future expectations can, in fact, lead to a different future than they expected [8]. Furthermore, beliefs about the future may be based on different epistemologies or knowledge systems [9]. Indeed, because the future is yet to happen, there is no “true” state of the future and, therefore, alternative characterizations or images of the future that illustrate a range of possible states may collectively provide the most insight into what the future might hold [10]. Scenario planning is a structured process of exploring the future in situations when uncertainty is high and controllability is low [11]. Alternative scenarios produced through such a process are in effect conceptual models or stories that
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