Climate Change, Agriculture and Economic Growth in Lebanon: A VAR Approach

As agriculture is considered one of the most important economic sectors in Lebanon, the aim of this article is to study the impact of precipitation and temperature on economic growth through agriculture in Lebanon. In addition, the presence of climate change in the developing countries, in the Mediterranean region which has been considered a place of transition between two large climatic units, becomes certainty and represents an ecological, economic and social threat. This analysis is made with an autoregressive VAR model, between time series variables, based on the stationarity test. The results show the presence of two models, long and short term models that explain the direct positive effect of precipitation and the direct and indirect effect of temperature on the GDP of agriculture in Lebanon with a non-significant effect for the short term period