煤矿区煤层气利用潜力分析

针对"十一五"、"十二五"期间煤矿区煤层气开发利用量与规划目标差距较大,特别是井下抽采利用率与规划目标相差甚远的问题,从抽采量和抽采浓度、利用技术、利用模式、政策因素等方面开展利用潜力影响因素分析,构建开发规模、利用规模和利用率预测模型,采用情景分析方法预测"十三五"煤层气开发利用量和利用率,并提出发展目标。根据计算结果,取中情景,到2020年煤矿区煤层气抽采量达到257亿~289亿m~3,利用量达到148亿~170亿m~3,地面井煤层气利用率在80%以上,井下抽采煤层气利用率在45%以上,煤矿区煤层气综合利用率在58%以上。 In view of"11th Five-Year Plan"and "12th Five- Year Plan"period,the exploitation and utilization of coal mine methane( CMM) is far from the planning goal,especially the underground extraction efficiency.Based on the analysis of influencing factors,including concentration and quantity of exploitation,utilization technology,utilization pattern,policy,and so on,the prediction model of exploitation and utilization was built.The utilization amount and utilization rate of CMM in "13th Five-Year Plan"was thus predicted by using scenario analysis method,and development goals were proposed.According to the calculation results,the CMM exploitation will reach 25. 7billion-28.9 billion cubic meters,and the utilization amount will be 14.8 billion- 17. 0 billion cubic meters,as well the utilization rate of CMM in the surface wells and underground coal seam will be beyond 80% and 45%,respectively.Eventually the total CMM utilization rate will be more than 58% in 2020