房价对家庭生育决策的影响
The Effect of Housing Price on Family Fertility Decision in China

摘要 文章基于2014年中国家庭追踪调查数据研究了房价对家庭生育决策的影响,选用已婚夫妇结婚当年和结婚5年后的房价分别作为生育一孩和生育二孩的影响因素，并通过比较一套房和多套房的相关结论讨论了房价影响家庭生育决策的渠道。本研究发现：（1）房价对生育孩子的概率有显著负影响，房价每上涨1000元，生育一孩的概率将降低1.8%～2.9%，生育二孩的概率将降低2.4%～8.8%;（2）房价推迟了女性的初次生育年龄，房价每上涨1000元，初次生育年龄将提高0.14～0.26年；（3）房价上涨对生育决策的影响理论上存在挤出效应和财富效应两种机制，但现实中挤出效应的影响更大。文章的结论意味着，我国生育率下降与房价上涨有一定关系，政府应抑制房价非理性上涨。
Abstract：This paper examines the effect of housing price on family fertility decision based on the data of 2014 China Family Panel Studies. We chose housing prices at the time of marriage and the time of five years after marriage as the variables influencing the decisions to have the first child and the second child respectively. We also discuss the mechanisms through which housing price affects fertility decisions by comparing families only having one house and those having two and more houses. Three main results are found in this paper. First, housing price has a significant negative effect on the probability of having children. The probability of having the first and the second child would decrease by 1.8% to 2.9% and 2.4% to 8.8% if housing price increases one thousand yuan. Second, housing price postpones the age of females to have the first child. The age at first birth would increase by 0.14 to 0.26 years if housing price increases one thousand yuan. Third, there are two theoretical mechanisms explaining the effect of housing price on fertility decision, namely wealth mechanism and crowding mechanism. In reality, the degree of influence from the crowding mechanism is much bigger than that of the wealth mechanism. The results of this paper imply that decline of fertility rate in recent years is related to the rapid increase of housing price and government need to restrain the irrational increase of housing price