二代流动儿童回流状况及其影响因素
The Return Decision Making of the Second Generation Migrants

摘要 随着流动人口家庭化迁移的发展，出生且生长在城市的二代流动儿童日益增多。文章使用2016年全国流动人口监测数据，提出一种测量二代流动儿童回流的新方法，并从个体特征、家庭因素以及地区差异等方面分析0~17岁二代流动儿童的回流状况及其影响因素。分析结果显示：（1）从个体特征来看，13~15岁二代流动儿童更容易回流；（2）从家庭特征来看，父母流动次数越多的孩子越容易回流，父母当次流动时长越短的孩子越容易回流，留守的兄弟姐妹数量越多的孩子越容易回流；（3）从迁移距离来看，相对于短距离迁移来说，跨省迁移的二代流动儿童更易回流；（4）从地区来看，相比于中西部地区，东部地区出生的二代流动儿童更容易回流。
Abstract：The second generation migrants in China are expanding as a result of the development of family migration. Using data from the 2016 China Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey for the second generation, we analyze factors that influence the decision making of the second generation return migrants. A principal innovation of this essay is that a new method to use the national survey data to measure the return migration among second generation migrants has been developed. Results show that (1)13-15 yearold second generation migrants are more likely to return than other age groups; (2) The more frequently their parents stay, the more likely the second generation migrants will return; the longer duration their parents migrate, the less likely the second generation migrants will return; the more leftbehind siblings there are in the household, the more likely the second generation migrants will return; (3) Compared with short distance migrants, interprovincial migrats of the second generation are more likely to return;(4) Compared with those in the Middle and the West region, the second generation born in the East are more likely to return. We argue that challenges facing the development of Chinese urbanization will be formidable